Last week we predicted that Bitcoin would test the $60k strong resistance zone, and if it failed to break/hold above this – it would retrace and test support levels closer to $50k. This seems to be exactly what played out and what continues to play out on the charts this week! Let’s take a look and see how our predictions/analysis worked, and see if we can continue to decipher the trends. 

BTC/USD 4H Chart from Tradingview

As you can see, Bitcoin did in fact break the previous high of $58k and briefly traded as high as $62k before failing to hold the $62k level upon the first retest. Because of this, Bitcoin has been trending down, currently trading at $55k. Our prediction that holding above $60k was unlikely proved out to be true – largely since the market is heavily overbought and a bearish signal on the moving averages. 

(BTC/USD 4H Chart with Moving Averages from LAST WEEK) 

Price Analysis

Last week we saw the moving averages in the chart above and saw that the 100MA was flat/slightly down and was coming up on a bearish cross with the 200MA. 

BTC/USD 4H Chart, UPDATED

If we look at the updated chart for this week, we see that the 100MA line (light blue) changed direction and did not complete the bearish cross with the 200MA line (yellow). While the bearish situation did not fully complete, it remains close if this downtrend continues. The 200MA line has been strong support during this uptrend (see around Mar 1) and will most likely continue to be around the $50-51k mark. 

BTC/USD Daily Chart from Trading View

Looking at the long-term daily candle chart, it’s clear that despite these pullbacks in price we are still in a bullish situation. The closest support according to moving averages is around $52k (20MA). 

BTC/USD 4H Chart with RSI

Lastly we will use the RSI on the 4H chart to determine if we are overbought/oversold for the week. Last week it was clear that we were overbought and due for a correction – which happened. This week we can see that the correction has definitely begun, but we are still in the purple zone – which means we have a little ways to go before becoming oversold.

Investor Sentiment

We are still in the “greed” zone – which has climbed up a bit from 68 last week to 71 today. This is probably due to Bitcoin minting its new ATH, but overall is a signal that further price reductions are likely for now. 

Fundamental Analysis

Total Hash Rate, taken from Blockchain.com

The Total hash rate continues to be strong, declining slightly from last week but still up about 50% from where it was this time last year. This indicates that the mining cost (inherent value) of Bitcoin remains strong. 

It was reported last week that Chinese app Meitu bought $40 million worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum, indicating that institutional investment into cryptocurrencies continues to rise. This is a long term bullish case. 

Conclusion

It appears we are in a short term down trend, and that we will test the $50-52k support zone. This should be a strong support, as it is a combination of moving average, RSI, and psychological support zones. If this support somehow fails, we will likely continue trending further down. Otherwise if it holds, expect a retest of $60k. 

The post Bitcoin Analysis – Week of March 13 appeared first on Midas.Investments. Crypto investment company blog..

It’s been a few weeks since our last Bitcoin Analysis piece, but we are back and ready to dive back in! Bitcoin has been up to a lot since our last article, which was published in early December when Bitcoin was still trading under $20k. We had predicted in the past that a price target for Bitcoin this cycle was around the $50k mark – and we were correct! Bitcoin has fluctuated around this price point, and seems poised to test new highs. Let’s take a look at the charts, as well as conduct some fundamental analysis and see if we can predict future trends! 

Price Analysis

BTC/USD 4H Chart taken from Tradingview

Bitcoin has ranged in the 40-50k zone since it crossed this threshold in early February. It now appears to be approaching the $58k mark, which was our previous high. If the price breaks and holds above the $58k resistance, we could see Bitcoin test $60k. If Bitcoin fails to break $58k, it is likely we return to the $50k price point to test support. 

Looking at the moving averages, we can see that the yellow 200MA line acted as strong support after the initial fall from $58k. This 200MA has continued to rise, and is now positioned between $48-50k. This is our support zone. 

A looming bearish sign is the flatlining 100MA, which could soon push a bearish cross beneath the 200MA. Remember, whenever 20MA>100MA>200MA, we are in a bull cycle (for a given timeframe). Likewise, whenever 20MA<100MA<200MA, we are in a bear cycle. If Bitcoin fails to break above 58k and retraces, we could see a death cross scenario. 

BTC/USD 1D Chart from TradingView, Moving Averages Shown

Looking at the much larger 1D chart, we can see that the market has been highly bullish for a long time – and we are way above our support levels. The 100MA is currently sitting at $35k and the 200MA at $23k. If we move into a bear cycle, look to these areas as key support levels. 

BTC/USD 4H Chart, RSI shown

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one that we often use to determine if the market is overbought or oversold in a given timeframe. Whenever the index trades above the purple zone, we are overbought, and likewise oversold when trading under the purple zone. As it stands, we are overbought – meaning we are likely due for a correction soon. This makes it look unlikely that Bitcoin will break the $58-60k zone resistance, but stranger things have happened. 

Investor Sentiment 

Fear/Greed Index, taken from Alternative.me

The Fear Greed index is one that we often use to predict large market movements. We have been in the “extreme greed” territory for the past several months, but we have now entered the “greed” territory. Generally speaking, “extreme greed” means that we will correct down. However, “greed” is not a strong indicator by itself and could easily go back to “extreme greed” zone. 

Fundamental Analysis

Taken from Blockchain.com

Bitcoin’s hash rate continues to be strong – climbing back upward toward its yearly high of 165m TH/s, which was achieved on Feb 8. A high hash rate means that the network’s electricity consumption is high – keeping the mining cost high (and subsequently, Bitcoin’s inherent value). 

Fundamentally, Bitcoin continues to be very strong – with institutional investment continuing on a daily basis. Today alone, Israeli Pension Giant put $100M into Grayscale, and the newly passed stimulus in the United States has pushed Bitcoin closer to its all time high. This comes on the heels of big companies such as Tesla, who have diversified a portion of their company holdings into Bitcoin. 

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s latest bull run has brought us to record highs, and it may not be over yet. It’s looking like it will retest its all time high before making a decision point. The indicators seem to predict that it will not break the $60k level before retracing, but anything can happen. The market remains greedy, and is becoming heavily overbought. Look at $60k as a strong resistance, and $50k as support. 

This is not investment advice. Article is intended for education and entertainment only. Do your own research.

The post Bitcoin Analysis – Week of March 7 appeared first on Midas.Investments. Crypto investment company blog..

Last week we said: 

With BTC continuing to bounce, the deciding factor will be if it can break the $10.8 – 11k resistance zone. After that, $12k is the ceiling before breaking new ground. If BTC fails to break resistance, it will retest support at $10k. 

This is EXACTLY what happened! Bitcoin moved up and tested the 10.8-11k resistance and failed to break the key level. Effectively this created a “lower-high” in the charts, which is a short term bearish signal. As such, the price has retraced and is currently trading around $10.4k, just as we predicted. Let’s take a look at what the charts are telling us this week and try to determine market direction. 

This article is educational in nature and should not be taken as financial advice. Do your own research before making any investment decision. 

Price Analysis

Bitcoin has corrected from last week’s high of $11k, but has found a temporary support around $10.4k. It’s decision time for Bitcoin. Support levels are at 10.4k, 9.8-10k, 9-9.2k, 8.5k, 7.2k, and then 5.5k. If Bitcoin fails to hold at 10.4k, a drop to the psychological level of 10k is likely, followed by trend support at 9k. Failing to hold 9k would be a confirmation that the bull market is over, and we are likely in a bear market. Failure to hold 10k would mean an extended period of consolidation is the most likely scenario. 

The Daily candle chart is very telling of the current situation. It’s a make or break moment for BTC. As you can see, the 20MA (dark blue) is pending a bearish cross over the 100MA (yellow), which would signal a shift into consolidation. Right now, the 100MA line is acting as strong support, as it did in early September with multiple retests. Below this is the 200MA (light blue), which is our trend support. Specifically, this support is at 9.2k, but wicks to the 9k level are possible if this level faces testing. 

The hourly chart also shows a rather bearish scenario, with a death cross imminent. The 20MA has already crossed below the 200MA, and the 100MA is about to cross as well. This confirms a short term bearish trend, meaning that a retest of 10k is likely, but not guaranteed. 

Investor Sentiment

Taking a contrarian mindset can be quite profitable as a trader. By taking positions opposite to the overwhelming sentiment in the market, we will be in a good position when the market inevitably changes. As such, when these indicators give off a reading of “Fear” or “Extreme Fear” – we see it as a buying opportunity. The famous quote by Baron Rothschild, a British nobleman and banker from the 19th century says, “Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.” 

Both indexes agree that the markets are moving toward “fear”. While we see this generally as bullish, there is still plenty of room underneath before the fear becomes ripe enough to swing trade. Enter positions with caution. 

Fundamental Analysis

The fundamentals are actually showing a glimmer of hope for BTC despite the impending bearish price action. 

The Hash rate is still at an all time high, meaning mining is still rife with competition. 

Combined with relatively low transaction fees, miners revenue is still close to yearly lows. Remember, miners are good traders and as such they will not sell at a loss. If the hash rate is high, the cost to mine 1 BTC means that the inherent value of BTC is still high. Smart miners are not selling rewards right now. This is bullish for BTC. 

Analysis

Like we said, BTC is testing $10.4k, but with an imminent death cross on the local hourly chart, a retest of the 10k zone is possible if not likely. I would expect this to be a quick touch, “wicking” below the 100MA on the daily chart but closing the day above 10.4k. Failing to do this would indicate that a retest of the trend support at 9.2k is likely, followed by a long-term consolidation phase.  

TLDR

• Short Term: Bearish
• Medium/Long Term: Neutral 

The post Bitcoin Price Analysis – Week of September 20 appeared first on Midas.Investments. Crypto investment company blog..

How Accurate Has our TA Been?

For those of you who have been following, we have published a series of ten Bitcoin TA articles over the past few months. These articles were written on a weekly basis, with the overall goal of determining the market direction for Bitcoin and Crypto in general. We hope that you have found the articles interesting, and that they have been a useful tool for you as you conduct market research. 

Technical Analysis: Art or Science? 

The particular method of Technical Analysis that an analyst uses will vary from person to person. Some may take a very measured, scientific approach, while others may use more of a “gut feel” and their experience to read the charts. The beauty is that there is no right or wrong answer! The only thing that matters is the final result. In our TA articles, we use a combination of factors, including chart patterns (price analysis), moving averages, RSI to determine overbought and oversold, investor sentiment, and blockchain fundamentals, essentially blending both art and science into a unique approach. 

So how effective has our analysis been? Let’s take a look at each week’s conclusion and see how accurate our predictions were. 

Week of May 24 – “Bitcoin is currently bouncing off of the short-term trendline, and will retest the $10k levels. If this level is broken, I expect the price to increase significantly, as Network Hash and Mining Revenue are at support levels…. If BTC breaks $10k, it could easily rocket to $12k. If it fails and the trendline breaks, a return to $8k is likely.” 

As you can see, we were correct! The price retraced, held the trend, and then retested the $10k levels. Accuracy: 1/1

Week of June 7: As we correctly predicted in our last analysis article, Bitcoin bounced off of the trendline and retested the 10k levels, which it failed to break. Since then, it has been trading in a narrow range, with a decision point coming in the next week. The $10k mark is a strong resistance, and if broken, BTC could easily test the $12k levels. If instead, BTC breaks downward, strong support will be found around $8.1k. 

Since price indicators and investor sentiment are both neutral, trading in this time is at an increased risk. Be sure to use tight stop losses and not to trade more than you are willing to lose. 

Let’s see how we did! 

Our advice was to use extra caution, and we predicted that if Bitcoin did not break the $10k levels, it would retest support. Thankfully, the price did not go all the way to $8.1k, but it did in fact retrace to about $8800. We’ll give ourselves a half point here. Accuracy: 1.5/2

Week of June 14: Last week we predicted that if Bitcoin failed to hold above the $10k level, the trend line would be broken and the price would test support levels. That is exactly what happened, leading to the recent correction to $8800. The recent spike to ~$9400 could be a good shorting opportunity for traders with a higher risk tolerance, with a target entry of $9450 – $9550. Long term, Bitcoin remains bullish, but traders should exercise extra caution until a clear direction is confirmed.

Here’s what happened: 

Our suggestion for risk takers to consider shorting around $9550 was a perfect entry (red box above) and would have been profitable if closed before the next week’s TA article was released. 

Accuracy: 2.5/3

Week of June 21: Since miners are not making as much money post-halving, a convincing and sustained break above the $10k level will be explosive. Nonetheless, the $10k mark has been an extremely strong resistance, and the price has failed to hold above this key level. Technical indicators as well as investor sentiment are all bullish, and I expect the price to retest the $10k levels in the coming days. Key support levels are: $9.2k, 8.8k. Key resistances are $9.6k, 9.8k, and 10.2k.

We read the market as bullish, and thought that Bitcoin would go up to challenge the $10k levels. We were right about the direction, but Bitcoin stalled out around the $9800 mark. We’ll give ourselves .75 of a point for this one. 

Accuracy: 3.25/4

Week of June 28: The $10k psychological resistance continues to evade Bitcoin, and the price is now consolidating yet again. After a failed attempt to break support last week, Bitcoin is in indecisive territory. On a short timeframe, technical indicators look neutral to bullish, but on the larger time frames, they look neutral to bearish. The best move now would be to wait for entries near the support zone, use tight stop losses, and exercise extra caution until Bitcoin determines a decisive direction.  

Since the advice for this week was to avoid trading and wait for a clear change of direction, we are going to skip this week. 

Week of July 5: Bitcoin continues to consolidate in an increasingly narrow range, indicating that a large move is getting closer. While many expected a “death spiral” to form after the block halving – the network hash is increasing. Bitcoin is showing its resiliency, and is currently undervalued. While sentiment and indicators are neutral or slightly bullish, Bitcoin’s fundamentals are strong. That being said, Bitcoin does not always perform as we expect it to. It’s the wild west. Be sure to use extra caution when taking your positions, and as always: NEVER INVEST MORE THAN YOU ARE WILLING TO LOSE. 

Again, we are going to skip this week since no clear prediction was called. We did, however, predict that a “large move” would be coming once Bitcoin broke out of the consolidation zone. 

Week of July 12: Bitcoin’s strong fundamentals tell me that once we break out of this consolidation zone, chances are it will be upward. This is not guaranteed, but a convincing break above the $9500 zone and then $10k with strong volumes will confirm the move. Otherwise, a break below $8600 and then $8k will confirm the opposite. Given Bitcoin’s low volatility, a break out of the consolidation zone could happen at any time. It’s important to exercise extra caution while trading until a direction is confirmed. 

Unfortunately, the market did not move much in this week, and no call was made. On to the next week! 

Week of July 19: Last week, we shared that Bitcoin’s “Hash Ribbon” indicator flashed its first “buy” signal in months. This signal was given on July 12.

Whenever this indicator has given a buy signal in the past, huge gains have followed in the weeks after. In 2017, it posted 93% returns in 122 days after the signal. In 2019, it made 277% in 166 days. In 2020, it made 45.3% in 48 days. What will it be now? 

The week that we made this “bullish” indication is when the fireworks started to go off on the chart! Definitely was a good call that week. 

Accuracy: 4.25/5

Week of August 2: After taking a one week vacation, we were back this week with the following analysis: 

Bitcoin has been responding predictably to the market indicators. After finding support levels above $9k in price, investor sentiment being slightly fearful, and the hash finding strong support, the only way Bitcoin could go was up. I expect that Bitcoin is out of gas for the moment, and will bounce around in the $10-12k range for a bit of time before making another move. Long term, I am very bullish on Bitcoin but a retrace to $10k is possible. If Bitcoin holds $10k, this is actually very bullish as it means that the strong resistance has turned to strong support. 

We predicted a short term correction before long term gains. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was closer to the red box in the image above. It very quickly followed our prediction, and dropped to the green zone before rebounding. 

Accuracy: 5.25/6

Week of August 9: While the fundamentals and price analysis look Bullish, the investor sentiment is clearly bearish for the short-to medium term. That being said, the market could stay greedy for a few more days and push Bitcoin higher before the “greed bubble” bursts and the price corrects. Personally, I would be very hesitant to enter a long position until the index turns back to neutral. However in the long term, I see the markets as very bullish for Bitcoin and believe we are in the beginnings of a new bull cycle that could take us to all time highs. The future is bright for crypto. Happy trading. 

Yesterday we said that in the short term, we were Neutral/Bearish, but still bullish in the long term. As you can see, today our prediction is playing out correctly, and Bitcoin is retracing its price. 

Accuracy: 6.25/7

TLDR;

Our goal was never to create buy and sell signals. Rather, the purpose of these TA articles was to determine overall market direction for both short and long term. If you have read these articles, you have enjoyed our highly accurate analysis, which was correct nearly 90% of the time. Hopefully you have seen the value of these articles reflected in your portfolio. 

As always, do your own research! 

The post Bitcoin TA Review appeared first on Midas.Investments. Crypto investment company blog..

Hello Midas Community! 

We will continue with our analysis of Bitcoin price movements, as it greatly affects the altcoin markets. In this series of TA, we will conduct some TA, and look at overall trends and fundamentals. Let’s get started!

Price Analysis

Here we see the macro price movements of Bitcoin vs USD on a 4H timeframe. Ever since the large decline in mid-March, Bitcoin rose steadily before beginning a consolidation pattern between 9-10k. 

If we take a closer (zoomed in) view of the chart, we see that a wedge consolidation pattern was forming, as depicted in the above picture by the red lines. These lines are determined by the candle “wicks”, which show a tightening window between support and resistance. However, the last few candles show an upward breakout from this zone. 

On lower timeframes, Bitcoin is showing very bullish activity, with the 100 MA line crossing the 200 MA line, before an upward surge in value. On higher (4H) timeframes, the RSI is currently 66, showing more room for positive upside. 

Investor Sentiment

One of our key indicators is the Fear/Greed index, which we use to predict overall market direction. Usually when the dial reads “fear” it indicates a good time to buy, and “greed” is a good time to sell. Since last week the price was declining, the historical values show slight “fear” – indicating that a move upward was likely. We are seeing this upward price movement now. After today’s move, it is likely that the index value will go up, but generally this remains a good buying opportunity. 

Fundamentals

Last week, at time of writing there was a hash rate of approx. 112m TH/s. Today, that number has fallen to 105m TH/s. Since Bitcoin’s price is rising currently, expect the hash rate to follow suit. 

After the block halving, the miners revenue is near its yearly low. In order for miners to regain their revenue, the price of Bitcoin must rise. 

Analysis

Since miners are not making as much money post-halving, a convincing and sustained break above the $10k level will be explosive. Nonetheless, the $10k mark has been an extremely strong resistance, and the price has failed to hold above this key level. Technical indicators as well as investor sentiment are all bullish, and I expect the price to retest the $10k levels in the coming days. Key support levels are: $9.2k, 8.8k. Key resistances are $9.6k, 9.8k, and 10.2k. 

Always do your own research before making an investment decision. 

The post Bitcoin Price Analysis – Week of June 21 appeared first on Midas.Investments. Crypto investment company blog..

Greetings Midas Community,

As always, we are keeping our eyes on the price movements of Bitcoin. Since the inception of cryptocurrency, the crypto market moves as Bitcoin moves. In these articles we will make weekly technical analysis, looking at trends and fundamentals.

Here we see Bitcoin’s price action on a large-scale 4H time frame. Since the big drop in mid-March, Bitcoin has been steadily rising against USD.

Until recently, the blue trendline was quite strong, and had been tested multiple times. However after several failed attempts to sustain a break above the $10k resistance level, the trend changed to test the local support. At time of writing, the local support of $8800 held, and the price has bounced back into the $9400 zone. If this support were to break, more support will be found at $8k and then the $6k zone. 

Zooming in on a 30 minute candle chart shows that the moving averages are bearish, but with a bullish divergence. After finding support, the current bounce is moving to challenge the short term bear trend. 

The technicals vary greatly depending on the timeframe. On the short term 30m chart, RSI is showing as overbought – indicating an imminent pullback. On the longer-term 4H and 1D charts, the RSI is neutral. 

Investor Sentiment

Like we always say, Investor Sentiment is a critical component of proper TA. In general, when the index shows  “Fear” it represents a good buying opportunity. Likewise, “greed” indicates a good selling opportunity. This index is updated once daily, so the drop to $8800 may not be fully factored into the index yet. However, the index is still showing slight fear, which might be a buying opportunity for long term investors. (This message will allow you to add an extra 10 dollars to your address if you are the first to send the words “a penny saved is a penny gained.” to the chat.)

Fundamentals

In our analysis from June 7, the TH/s read out around 112. Since our last analysis, the hash rate rose to 117 before returning to the 112 level. Even still, the network hash remains near all time high levels. 

Analysis

Last week we predicted that if Bitcoin failed to hold above the $10k level, the trend line would be broken and the price would test support levels. That is exactly what happened, leading to the recent correction to $8800. The recent spike to ~$9400 could be a good shorting opportunity for traders with a higher risk tolerance, with a target entry of $9450 – $9550. Long term, Bitcoin remains bullish, but traders should exercise extra caution until a clear direction is confirmed.

Always do your own research before making an investment decision. 

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